Seattle Real Estate Market Stats

Well, pretty much any way you slice it, we’re heading into October 2018 with a CONSIDERABLY softer real estate market than we had entering into last October.  Charts are below, but here’s the year over year breakdown:

·         New Listings:  2.98% more new listings hit the market in Sept 2018 versus Sept 2017

·         Total Active:  38.83% more inventory on the market in Sept 2018 versus Sept 2017 (supply goes up, prices go down)

·         Pending Sales:  16.12% fewer pending sales in Sept 2018 versus Sept 2017

·         Closings:  22.45% fewer closings in Sept 2018 versus Sept 2017

·         Average Price:  11.07% price appreciation year over year…but all of that was realized last October through Feb.  Prices have been declining region-wide since March 2018

·         Median Price:  10.25% price appreciation year over year…but again, all of that was realized last winter

o   Note:  Per Altos Research’s median price chart below, in Seattle the median home price appreciated about 23% between October 2017 and March 2018

·         Months of Inventory (Total Active divided by Number of Closings):  36.07% more months of inventory in Sept 2018 versus Sept 2017

Outside of May 2018, the overall number of New Listings hitting the market every month has been relatively constant…the big change has been number of buyers.  With a smaller 2018 buyer pool, inventory has inched as high as it’s been in years around Puget Sound.  This increase in inventory has the buyer window WIIIIIIDE open for anyone looking to venture into the Puget Sound Real Estate market – competition is down, therefore bidding wars are down, therefore people can actually DO an inspection before moving forward with their purchase… and overall, all this has the median house price down about 14% from its March 2018 high. 

With this said, this week or next week is traditionally where we start to see inventory dry up for the winter.  Remember, inventory in Seattle fell about 60% in 2015/16; 56% in 2016/17; and 67% in 2017/18.  Will inventory fall enough this year to reset the soft(er) market we’ve been experiencing, and therefore cause median house prices to start rising again?  It’s anyone’s guess as to what actually happens this winter, but right now…this week and next week…will be our clue to where we might be headed. 

Happy Investing!

This post courtesy of Primary Residential Mortgage Inc

Seattle Housing Inventory

Normally we see a pretty nice little bump in inventory in September, however, I’m not entirely sure that’s going to happen again!  We saw a HUGE run up in Seattle inventory between April and late June (about an 80% increase in inventory during that time), however, since peaking in August we’ve been on a pretty sharp decline in overall inventory levels.  That doesn’t mean things won’t start hitting the market in late September like they normally do, this early decline in inventory is merely representative of the gigantic build-up of buyers still looking for a home, and refocusing on their search now that Summer and Labor Day are over.

With the recent decline in overall inventory, we’ve also seen the median priced home in Seattle tick back upward from $699k in late August, to $722k this past week.  Please note, the Seattle median price home peak for the year was set in mid May at $777,475.  It will be interesting to see whether or not prices continue to increase throughout fall and winter, and then increasingly so next spring; versus what normally happens where prices remain steady until January when they start skyrocketing. 

In the end, it looks like the stage is being set for an even more competitive market next year with inventory levels plummeting earlier than normal as Fall’s buyer-pool snatches up homes more fiercely than ever before. 

Happy Investing!

Today's market report courtesy of Kyle Bergquist, Guild Mortgage

Big Yellow Cranes

See all those big yellow cranes? We’re sorry to say that they’re probably not building your next home. Our current regulations make building offices and rental units more appealing to developers than condos, townhomes, single-family homes and mixed-use properties that serve the middle class.
Even if they were building homes to put on the market, we’re so far behind demand that it will take much, much more construction to catch us up. But it’s worth making the effort now: a study by the California Legislative Analyst’s Office has shown that building enough supply would result in lower prices. As more proof, Tokyo has not seen rapid home price appreciation because it meets all new demand by building more housing.

If you’re curious about all the construction, you’re not alone. Seattle in Progress is a free map tool that shows what’s being built all around Seattle. Explore the map

Today's blog courtesy of The Housing Translator.

Happy Investing!

Seattle's Hottest Real Estate Areas

Are there really only eleven active bank-owned residential listings in Seattle today??? 

This excludes condominiums, townhomes or mobile homes. And of course, Seattle has the distinction of having the second lowest rate of home sales inventory in all of the country's major metropolitan areas.


The Seattle Real Estate Market set a new low water mark in a recent week with only 459 single family residences for sale in the ENTIRE CITY!!!  This week, there are only 285 residential listings, if you exclude condos, townhomes, mobile homes, etc. That said, overall average days on the market is increasing despite the falling inventory meaning that of those 459 homes for sale in Seattle, more than half of them are aged listings…aka, they’ve been on the market awhile and are apparently priced too high for what they offer.  Thus, if we could come up with some sort of metric for Attractive Inventory, I can assure you it would be considerably less than even the 459 we’re seeing now.  With the average price per square foot still about 21% higher this year than at this time of year last year, the Seattle Housing Market is set for another strong year of appreciation heading into 2017. 

On that note, now that 2016 is about done Redfin compiled a list of the “30 Most Competitive Neighborhoods of 2016 [in the US]”.  The greater Seattle area was home to 10 of the 30 most competitive neighborhoods based on the percentage of homes that went over asking, and how many days they were listed on the market.  Read the full article here: https://www.redfin.com/blog/2016/12/most-competitive-neighborhoods-of-2016.html

Happy Investing!

Seattle Inventory

As expected, inventory levels did not rise during the holidays.  In fact, only 37 new listings hit the Seattle proper market last week!  Record low inventory levels, combined with continuing strong demand have set Seattle up to have another banner year in 2017.  Zillow actually ranks the Greater Seattle Region as the projected second hottest market in the nation for 2017 (Nashville with all their growth in the healthcare sector came in first).  The interesting, but maybe not so surprising aspect of the report was the neighborhoods Zillow thinks will appreciate the most in Seattle – South Seattle (Jackson Place, Rainier Beach, and Brighton); Delridge over in West Seattle; and Northwest Bellevue.  To me this is interesting, but taking a step back I can’t say I’m too surprised.  Borrowers have been expanding their search out of the most competitive Seattle neighborhoods, and into the lower priced, less competitive surrounding areas.  Like a rising tide lifts all boats – the neighborhoods of Seattle that appreciated the most last year are now projected to lift the surrounding neighborhoods with spill-over buyers who have decided to expand their search.

Check out the full article on Zillow’s report here:  http://www.bizjournals.com/seattle/news/2017/01/06/zillow-lists-regions-hottest-housing-markets-and.html

Today's blog courtesy of Kyle Bergquist, Guild Mortgage

Happy Investing!

No Holiday Breather

NWMLS Monthly Press Release

Real Estate Brokers Expect No Holiday Breather

Pending sales of homes hit an all-time high for the month of November according to the latest statistics from Northwest Multiple Listing Service. The report covering 23 counties around Washington state also shows the number of new listings added during the month plunged to the lowest level in 11 months, prompting MLS leaders to predict a busy winter for residential real estate as buyers compete for the smallest inventory since March.

Figures for November show a 13.2% drop in inventory of single family homes and condominiums, a9.4% gain in pending sales, a 31.3% spike in closed sales, and an 11% increase in prices compared to the same month a year ago.

Pending sales (mutually accepted offers) totaled 8,217, and eclipsed the number of new listings (5,779) by 2,438 units. That imbalance depleted total inventory, dropping the number of active listings to 13,303, down 13.2% from a year ago.

The median price on last month’s closed sales of single family homes and condominiums area-wide was $342,000, up 11% from the year-ago figure of $308,000. August was the only other month this year with year-over-year double-digit appreciation for prices area-wide.

Prices for single family homes (excluding condos) rose 10.9 % from a year ago to $350,500. King County reported the highest median price for single family homes at $550,000 (up 10 % year-over-year).



Happy Investing!

Seattle Housing Reality

Inventory of current homes isn’t the only thing lacking in Seattle, Seattle also ranks in the top 15 nationwide for lack of buildable land.  The National Association of Home Builders says the availability of new-home lots is at a historic low.  64% of home builders reported the supply of new-home lots in their areas was “low” or “very low”.  That’s the highest percentage since the NAHB started collecting this data in 1997!

The buildable land shortage is driving up prices on new homes in and around Seattle.  Given the steep increase of new home prices along with the appreciating market for existing homes, many Seattle homeowners are finding it considerably cheaper to renovate their current home than to sell and purchase new.  This trend will only further decrease existing home sales, and pressure overall inventory of homes for sale in Seattle downward. 

To read more, check out the full article here:  http://blog.rismedia.com/2016/new-home-lots/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=eNews

Happy Investing!

Today's blog courtesy of Kyle Bergquist, Guild Mortgage

Hot, hot, hot!

MLS figures show there is only 1.76 months of supply system-wide. In both King and Snohomish counties, there is barely more than one month of supply – well below the 4-to-6 months that many experts use as an indicator of a balanced market.

Even though brokers say paltry inventory is limiting sales, the year-over-year volume of pending sales rose more than 7.4 percent last month. Members reported 12,275 mutually accepted offers, up from the year-ago total of 11,425. MLS data going back to 2004 shows that one-month total is the highest on record.

Prices also rose. The median price area-wide for last month’s 8,630 closed sales of single family homes and condominiums (combined) was $339,950. That’s up more than 7.2 percent from twelve months ago when purchasers paid $317,000 for the median-priced home. Ten counties reported double-digit price hikes.

In King County, the median price jumped more than 11.7 percent, from $434,000 to $485,000. Prices on single family homes surged nearly 16.5 percent, rising from $480,942 to $560,000. Condo prices were up 9 percent, but finding one proved challenging as inventory dropped 29 percent in King County.

Happy Investing!

Seattle Market Update

Exciting week for buyers this week!  Inventory increased at its quickest pace this year adding 54 homes, or 8.39% to the overall stock of homes for sale within Seattle City Limits!  Prices and Days on the Market also moved sideways this past week for the first time in a long time.  It’s still a highly competitive market out there, but at least it’s not becoming MORE competitive.  If you have buyers who got frustrated and took a small sabbatical from house hunting, now might be a good time for them to take another look. 

In other news, great article in the Seattle Times last week…and no, I’m not talking about the one where we need another zip code (564) because there are too many people moving to Washington and not enough phone numbers to go around - I’m talking about the “Million-dollar-home count triples across Seattle area in 4 years” one.  The headline says it all, but the story is full of great housing stats including comparisons between the current Seattle housing market and California’s (ie. Despite going from 2.5% to 7% of all homes being worth at least $1m in the Seattle region in the last four years; California still has it worse – In San Francisco 57% of all homes are worth at least $1m). 

Check out the full story here:  http://www.seattletimes.com/business/million-dollar-home-count-triples-across-seattle-area-in-4-years/?utm_source=referral&utm_medium=mobile-app&utm_campaign=ios

Happy Investing!

Today's blog post courtesy of Kyle Bergquist, Guild Mortgage

Seattle Real Estate Market

The number of new listings is increasing week over week (139 new listings last week); however pent up buyer demand from the lack of winter inventory is far out-pacing sellers right now.  The Seattle inventory count fell to 552 – 32 homes above our record low set a couple months ago. 

As you might expect with a white-hot market, buyer competition and escalation clauses are driving prices skyward.  We blasted through the $300 per foot mark a couple weeks back, and look to be at $325 per sq foot in the next week or so.  Thought:  If the cost to build new is about $125 per sq foot…eventually we’re going to get to a point where even fewer people are going to want to sell.  Instead of buying a move-up home, people will just tear down or renovate their current one – this will further decrease potential new inventory moving forward. 

Combine that thought of building new for about $125 per sq foot with Fannie Mae’s new guidelines a few months back where proposed rental income can be used to offset a current mortgage (thus, allowing current homeowners to keep their homes and buy another one instead of being forced to sell it); and I don’t see any inventory relief coming to Seattle anytime soon.  It’s beginning to look like a downward spiral for inventory…which should make builders happy, and the Seattle economy chugging along for quite some time.  

Mortgage interest rates were the victim of some pretty good news last week on the two fronts that have been driving them lower since the start of 2016 – 1) Oil prices rose, and are trading at $36.98 per barrel as I write this; and 2) domestic economic news was positive in the face of global turmoil. 

Oil prices continued rising last week despite an EIA reading of over 10m barrels added to inventories.  The reason:  US oil production is down (because so many oil rigs have had to shut down due to the low oil prices), and Venezuela may get shut out of the global oil market if they default on their debt…which it looks like they might.  There were conspiracy theories that Saudi Arabia has been driving down oil prices to kill off some of the weaker producers so that the price of oil would stabilize and remain high in the long run.  It looks like their hopes may be coming to fruition.  The price of oil has become an important topic as of the last few months.  The lower it goes, the more it hurts US companies and our economy.  When the price of oil falls, fears arise, and investors park their money in the mortgage bond thus lowering mortgage interest rates.  However, when the price of oil rises, economic fears lesson, and investors take their money out of the mortgage bond to invest is other higher risk/higher return assets.  This, in turn raises mortgage interest rates.

On the jobs front last week, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Friday that US Payrolls increased by 242,000.  This was much higher than the forecast of 190,000.  Not only that, but unemployment is at 4.9%; the labor force participation rate increased to 62.9% (highest level in just over a year); and the employment-to-population ratio increased to 59.8% (the highest since April 2009).  This is great news for the US economy!  And surprising as well – People’s worst fears over what the fallout would be by lower oil prices putting oil workers out of work, and the slowdown in China have at least been quelled for now by this outstanding employment report. 

We’ll see what happens moving forward, but at least for now, sentiment is starting to change, and mortgage interest rates are starting to trend higher as a result.    

Today's blog courtesy of Kyle Berquist, Guild Mortgage Company

Happy Investing!

Hot, hot, hot!

The NWMLS reports that home prices in King County hit new highs in February as buyers tried to outbid each other for the sparse inventory in much of Western Washington.

With the number of single family homes for sale in King County down nearly 30 percent from a year ago, prices on last month’s sales surged 19.8 percent, jumping from $429,900 to $514,975. Ten other counties in the 23-county area served by Northwest Multiple Listing Service also reported double-digit price gains for single family homes that sold last month, according to its latest statistics. Condo prices surged 19.6 percent.

Member-brokers added 7,931 listings area-wide to inventory last month for a slight improvement from a year ago when they added 7,852 homes and condominiums to their database. At month end, they reported 12,107 active listings, a sharp drop from a year ago when there were 16,946 properties offered for sale.

Current levels of inventory translate to 2.4 months of supply, well below the four-to-six months that industry experts use to indicate a balanced market. In the four-county Puget Sound region, supply is hovering near or below two months, with King County having the lowest level at only 1.3 months of supply.

Seven counties, including King County, reported year-over-year declines in pending sales during February in the wake of inventory shortages. Pending sales in King County fell about 5.6 percent compared to twelve months ago. The selection in the state’s most populous county plummeted nearly 32 percent from year-ago levels while asking prices jumped about 22 percent.

This market is red hot for sellers, and a challenge for buyers...

Happy Investing!

Seller's Market

Newly released figures from the NWMLS for October show pending sales are up 7.8 percent from a year ago, rising from 8,643 transactions to 9,317. Nearly half the counties in its service area reported double-digit gains in the number of mutually accepted offers. For the four-county Puget Sound region encompassing King, Kitsap, Pierce and Snohomish counties, Northwest MLS members tallied 6,977 pending sales, the highest October volume in a decade.

Yet inventory is down 23% from last October! If only we had more homes to sell!

If you are thinking about selling your Seattle house, now would be a good time. Message me privately at HomeLandInvestment@gmail.com for a free online valuation of your home.

Happy Investing!

Seattle Housing Inventory

There are currently 682 active listings for single family homes for sale in the City of Seattle. 384 of these have been on the market for more than 30 days, which means that 44% of current listings have been on the market less than 30 days.

There have been 757 sales of single family homes in Seattle in the last 30 days, greater than the entire inventory that is currently available in all price ranges. 301 homes sold in the last two weeks. Of these, the median home price was listed for $525,000 and sold for $585,000. Half of these homes sold in less than seven days.

Are we in a bubble, Seattle? What do you think?

Happy Investing!

Cash is King in Today's Housing Market

It now costs more to rent than to own a home in 98 of the top 100 U.S. metropolitan areas, says real estate website Trulia, which tracks rents and home prices. In some of those markets, however, the inventory of homes for sale has shrunk.

Home inventories have shrunk because fewer foreclosures are coming to market. Many homeowners don't want to sell, because they don't have enough equity in their homes. Others are waiting for higher prices.

While the bottom tier nationwide experienced an average 12 percent decline in housing inventory overall, Las Vegas, Colorado Springs and San Francisco saw more than a 50 percent drop. Inventories also shrank faster than the national average in Minneapolis; Charleston, S.C.; Seattle; Washington, D.C.; Miami; and parts of Southern California, according to Zillow.

In May, for example, the Seattle area had a 1.7-month supply of homes for sale, according to the Northwest Multiple Listing Service. 

Cash buyers accounted for almost a third of existing home sales this year. Before the housing crash, cash buyers accounted for less than 10 percent of sales, the National Association of Realtors says.

FHA loans have a minimum down payment of 3.5 percent and take weeks to close. Conventional loans have bigger down payments and can close faster, but cash deals close fastest. And cash deals don't involve an appraisal, which lenders require before they make loans. Sellers like cash offers because there's less risk that they'll fall through

As part of Home Land Seattle's December specials, Seattle homesellers may list their house FOR FREE on the NWMLS  and Seattle home buyers (using cash or financing!) will receive a $1000 cash rebate when closing on any offer they made during this month.

Contact HomeLandInvestment@gmail.com for more details, and Happy Holidays!

Listings Fall! Come See Inventory on our Homes Tour Today!

A scan of inventory on the NWMLS shows that the number of listings in Seattle has fallen, perhaps because there is a bottleneck in processing foreclosures. Our Sunday Homes Tours this month will focus on inventory for both foreclosures and other opportunities for investors, cash-buyers, and other house-hunters.

The first tour of the month will be today at 1pm, and focuses on seller-financed listings. The tours are free, and no reservations are required. Just show up at 8818 30th Ave NW in Ballard, for maps and directions. I will be leading the tours.

Our tour the last Sunday this month will focus on foreclosures and bank-owned properties. There is plenty of inventory for the tour! But for more details on the recent news story about falling inventory, please click here.

For more information on our Sunday Tour of Homes in Seattle this month, call our 24-hour recorded real estate information hotline at 888-621-4999 x 4.