Showing posts with label US stock market. Show all posts
Showing posts with label US stock market. Show all posts

Wednesday, November 9, 2016

Drowning in Debt

How will the economy respond to a Trump presidency? How will real estate respond in the coming months?





I am not prepared to address this topic immediately, but have some grave concerns.


Income inequality would only be expected to get worse with tax cuts to the rich, and the government deficit would hardly shrink if there is a loss of tax revenue, especially with more spending for infrastructure and defense.

The US government is $19 trillion in debt; private debt is $27 trillion; US corporate debt has gone from $2 trillion in 2008 to $6 trillion today. The debt-to-equity ratio of non-financial firms on the S&P 500 Index is at an all-time high.

US equity markets are at valuations that have been seen on only three other occasions: 2007, before the Great Recession; 1999, before the dot com-bubble crash; and 1929, before the Great Depression.

If the Fed raises interest rates, the US dollar will strengthen against all other currencies. A stronger dollar makes American goods more expensive overseas. If those sales plunge, US companies will lay off American workers, slowing growth here at home. A change in trade policy under the Trump administration could also send economic shock waves around the globe.

The US stock market is already vulnerable, and an interest-rate hike would be a death knell...Expect stocks to tumble on the news of a Trump presidency, and brace yourself for a bumpy economy for the near future...

Happy Investing!

Wednesday, January 6, 2016

Market Turmoil

What just happened in China? The drop in stock prices in China set off financial tremors around the globe. How will it impact mortgages here?

Mortgage rates are set to open lower in 2016, with stock markets selling off around the world, creating demand for the safe-half of U.S. Treasuries and other fixed income assets. The drop in global stocks overnight was triggered by slowing manufacturing in China, with trading in Chinese markets actually halted after dropping 7% on the first trading day of the year.

So the economic news is good for US mortgage rates - and for US vacationers traveling to Europe, Asia and the Middle East. 

Keep your eyes on the macro- economy in the days and weeks to come!

Happy New Year!

Happy Investing!