Well, pretty much any way you slice it, we’re heading into October 2018 with a CONSIDERABLY softer real estate market than we had entering into last October. Charts are below, but here’s the year over year breakdown:
· New Listings: 2.98% more new listings hit the market in Sept 2018 versus Sept 2017
· Total Active: 38.83% more inventory on the market in Sept 2018 versus Sept 2017 (supply goes up, prices go down)
· Pending Sales: 16.12% fewer pending sales in Sept 2018 versus Sept 2017
· Closings: 22.45% fewer closings in Sept 2018 versus Sept 2017
· Average Price: 11.07% price appreciation year over year…but all of that was realized last October through Feb. Prices have been declining region-wide since March 2018
· Median Price: 10.25% price appreciation year over year…but again, all of that was realized last winter
o Note: Per Altos Research’s median price chart below, in Seattle the median home price appreciated about 23% between October 2017 and March 2018
· Months of Inventory (Total Active divided by Number of Closings): 36.07% more months of inventory in Sept 2018 versus Sept 2017
Outside of May 2018, the overall number of New Listings hitting the market every month has been relatively constant…the big change has been number of buyers. With a smaller 2018 buyer pool, inventory has inched as high as it’s been in years around Puget Sound. This increase in inventory has the buyer window WIIIIIIDE open for anyone looking to venture into the Puget Sound Real Estate market – competition is down, therefore bidding wars are down, therefore people can actually DO an inspection before moving forward with their purchase… and overall, all this has the median house price down about 14% from its March 2018 high.
With this said, this week or next week is traditionally where we start to see inventory dry up for the winter. Remember, inventory in Seattle fell about 60% in 2015/16; 56% in 2016/17; and 67% in 2017/18. Will inventory fall enough this year to reset the soft(er) market we’ve been experiencing, and therefore cause median house prices to start rising again? It’s anyone’s guess as to what actually happens this winter, but right now…this week and next week…will be our clue to where we might be headed.
This post courtesy of Primary Residential Mortgage Inc