Tuesday, March 24, 2015

Waterfront Pricing

So is there a correlation between linear feet of waterfront and fair market value?

Let's forget orientation to the sun, size of lot, or house features; and just focus on waterfront footage for a moment, examining our Lake Sammamish examples from recent blogs.

Of the twelve sales of Lake Sammamish waterfront properties in the past six months, one had a shared beach and one had a shared dock. The one with shared beach sold for $9500 per linear foot of waterfront.
The one with the shared dock sold for $48,148 per linear foot of waterfront.

The others sold as follows:
$33,000 per linear foot - 20' waterfront
$32,895 " - 38' waterfront
$65,560 " - 50' waterfront*
$25,397 " - 63' waterfront
$32,000 " - 75' waterfront*
$22,000 " - 75' waterfront
$20,202 " - 99' waterfront
$18,550 " - 100' waterfront
$20,642 " - 106' waterfront
$27,500 " - 120' waterfront*

The properties with asterisks had exceptionally large lots, or significantly more higher-end houses on the property. It is interesting to note that there appears to be a general relationship between linear feet of waterfront and market value. Ignoring the shared beach or dock, here is a graph of this correlation:

Using just this information, a property with 67' of waterfront on Lake Sammamish might be expected to bring a fair market price of $1,675,000 - $2M, depending on other factors such as quality and size of the house and lot, slope, and sun orientation. Six of the twelve recent sales on Lake Sammamish sold for over $2M, the others for less.

CoreLogic puts this specific house at a median value of $2.35M, but the range begins at $1,717,025. Given the steep slope of lot, and the awkwardness of the house layout, it makes sense to discount the price.

Using other variables identified in this previous blog, and looking at the closest sold comps, I would list this house initially at $1,875,000 for a quick sale - and promote the heck out of the Zillow valuation of $2,575,000. Given the issues identified above, I would encourage the Seller to keep the price under $2M, depending on his needs and timing. Pricing this too high might discourage some buyers, and delay the sale. A more reasonable valuation may result in multiple bids.

The top sales agent for Lake Sammamish however thinks that this particular house will garner a sales price of $2.6M. Her rationale is that the comps for Zillow and Realist do not encompass only waterfront comps, and therefore, they are too low. She may be right, as she knows this particular market very well.

Message me at HomeLandInvestment@gmail.com for a complete list of King County waterfront homes for sale, if you are looking for waterfront.

Happy Investing!

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